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Free for nonprofits, NGOs, think tanks, and institutes. Grant funded by James Scott, administered by the Embassy Row Project.

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KRYOS-XS Hypercube method

Scenario Branching and Strategic Actor Modeling

Candidate responses are branched forward against modeled adversaries so the second move is visible before the first one is made.

What it is

The method in plain terms

Each candidate response is projected forward against the behavior of the specific adversary class facing the organization, including state-aligned actors that target researchers, journalists, and human rights staff.

The branch shows what the adversary is likely to do in response, which observable would confirm it, and whether the chosen response closes the path or simply moves it.

Why it matters

A response that expels an opportunistic criminal may only inform a patient state-aligned actor that it has been detected. The correct action differs by adversary, and the difference is only visible if the adversary is modeled.

Applied

How it is used in a nonprofit environment

  • Deciding whether to expel an intruder immediately or observe long enough to find the full foothold
  • Anticipating retaliation against staff or partners following a containment action
  • Recognizing when the same campaign is running against multiple coalition members

Limits

Where the method stops

  • Actor models are hypotheses held with explicit confidence, never settled attribution
  • Branching describes plausible adversary behavior rather than certain behavior

Runs inside the overlay and returns recommendations into the grantee's existing workflow tools.